The risk layer
for crypto.
A deterministic engine that turns live market state into exposure limits,
leverage caps, and risk permissions before capital is deployed.
v1.4.0 live · Free during beta · Institutional pilot ready
Where it sits
Between market state and exposure.
How live market inputs become risk permissions.
- Price
- Derivatives
- On-chain
- Macro
- DeFi
- Sentiment
- Policy Level
- Max Exposure
- Leverage Cap
- Allowed Actions
- Blocked Actions
before capital is deployed
before capital is deployed
What you get
One engine. Two core outputs.
Available via API or Visualizer.
Configurable per API key — max gross, leverage cap, blocked protocols, per-asset caps. Layered on top of engine output; tightens only.
Two analysis modes:
- Tactical context & bias
- Trade setups with entry, stop, target
- Risk-adjusted sizing
- Automated condition checklists
- Structural outlook & cycle phase
- Allocation limits per policy level
- Drawdown risk assessment
- Capital deployment ladder
- DeFi borrowing aware
- Max drawdown reduction in adverse regimes
- DeFi liquidation and cascade prevention
- Exposure right-sizing per regime — not static rules
- Cross-agent, cross-desk decision consistency
- Full audit trail:
policy_hash,scoring_version,reason_codes
Who it's for
Built for allocators, agents, and traders.
Read the market. Enforce the limits. Deploy with discipline.
Configurable per-key mandate enforcement: max gross, leverage caps, blocked protocols, per-asset caps.
Engine output anchored in structural cycle state — drawdown containment during accumulation and distribution windows.
365-day audit log of every decision — policy_hash, scoring_version, reason codes. Long-term export tier available for paid pilots.
Pre-trade risk governor via REST API or MCP.
Deterministic exposure limits before every order.
Spot, perpetual futures and DeFi borrowing — one policy.
Replace emotional sizing with deterministic exposure limits.
Tighter in PANIC / EUPHORIA, wider in confirmed TREND — regime-aware.
BTC/ETH spot, perps and DeFi borrow — one unified policy view.
How it works
From signals to permissions in seconds.
RiskState policy engine converts market state into dynamic risk permissions.
Market, on-chain, macro, derivatives, DeFi health
Normalize, composite score, regime detection
4 independent caps × quality × volatility
Max size, leverage, allowed/blocked actions
5-level policy output
API Preview
One endpoint. Full risk enforcement.
Designed as a binding risk layer for agents and execution systems.
curl -X POST https://riskstate.netlify.app/v1/risk-state \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $RISKSTATE_API_KEY" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"asset": "BTC"}'{
"exposure_policy": {
"max_size_fraction": 0.42, // ◀
"leverage_allowed": true, // ◀
"allowed_actions": ["DCA", "LONG_SHORT_CONFIRMED"],
"blocked_actions": ["ALL_IN", "LEVERAGE_GT_2X"]
},
"tactical_state": "LEAN BULL", // ◀
"market_regime": "TREND",
"policy_level": 4,
"binding_constraint": {
"source": "MACRO", // ◀
"reason_codes": ["MACRO_NEUTRAL", "COUPLING_NORMAL"]
},
"risk_flags": {
"structural_blockers": [],
"context_risks": ["HIGH_COUPLING", "TREND_NOT_CONFIRMED"]
}
}Trust
Why RiskState is trustworthy.
Built for systems that require consistent, auditable risk decisions.
Same inputs, same outputs, always. SHA-256 policy hashes on every response. No stochastic decisions, no hidden state. Scoring version is frozen in 6-month minimums — no silent tuning.
External mathematical review of all scoring functions and normalization curves. Smooth sigmoids, logistic policy caps, Fisher z-transform confidence intervals. Every formula and every cap is published at conceptual level — calibration is not, but the shape is.
Read the methodology →Every scoring finding is tested against real forward returns. Permutation tests, circular block bootstrap for time-series dependency, honest confidence intervals. Framework and editorial standards published in Backtest; dated findings in Research.
See the backtest framework →A human-readable view of how RiskState reaches risk decisions.
RiskState VisualizerRiskState does not generate signals, execute trades or custody assets. It plugs into your stack as an independent risk layer between market state and capital deployment.
Pre-vendor due-diligence brief: architecture, data classification, audit trail with 365-day retention (7-year export tier on request), mandate enforcement via per-key policy_config, security posture, and a SIG Lite mapping table. NDA pilot scope negotiated separately.
Read the institutional guide →FAQ
Frequently asked questions.
Request early access.
Free during beta. API key delivered instantly.